Piqki Meta Ad Intelligence v3

Scientific Marketer Approach — February 21, 2026

1. The Scientific Framework

Why Parallel Hypothesis Testing Beats "Pick the Best Ad"

The traditional media buyer approach — run 3-5 ads, pick the winner, scale — is a gambling strategy dressed as strategy. You are not testing; you are selecting from a sample of one per variant. The winner might simply be less bad than the losers, not actually good.

Parallel hypothesis testing treats advertising as a scientific process:

Each ad tests ONE variable — not everything at once. Hook vs. hook. Visual vs. visual. Offer vs. offer.
Pre-commit decision rules BEFORE running — what validates the hypothesis, what invalidates it, and at what sample size.
Run in parallel, not sequence — sequential testing is slow and biased by time-varying confounders.
Measure the right metric — CAC is trailing. ROAS/MER is what practitioners use in real-time. Contribution margin is the financial truth.

How Piqki Runs It

For April 2026, we run 5 parallel hypotheses, each with:

A clear mechanism (what drives conversion, stated as a hypothesis)
A null hypothesis (what we expect if we're wrong)
A creative brief in Piqki's exact brand voice
Pre-committed kill/scale rules with specific thresholds
Budget allocation to reach statistical signal

2. The 5 Parallel Hypotheses

Hypothesis A: Identity Shift (Anti-Salon)

What it tests: Whether audience self-identifies as "anti-salon" — do they want to leave the salon world behind as part of their identity?

Mechanism: Identity-shift drives conversion. People who see themselves as "done with salons" convert at higher MER because the product aligns with who they are.

Creative Brief

Hook: "I haven't been to a salon in 2 years and my nails have never looked better."
Visual: UGC TikTok style (15-21 sec), lifestyle-first, not product-first. Real hands, natural lighting.
CTA: "Shop Piqki" — simple, no hype

Metrics & Decision Rules

Primary Metric	MER (revenue ÷ ad spend)
Secondary Metrics	CTR, thumb-stop rate
Kill Rule	Spend $50+ with CTR < 0.8%
Scale Rule	MER > 3.0x with 50+ conversions
Sample Size	50+ conversions per variant

Hypothesis B: Transformation (Before/After)

What it tests: Whether visual transformation is the primary driver — does showing the "after" state create desire?

Mechanism: Visual transformation drives conversion. Seeing the "after" state creates aspirational desire that triggers purchase.

Creative Brief

Hook: "POV: You just discovered press-ons and your nails look better than when you spent $60/month at the salon."
Visual: Split-screen or rapid-transition TikTok, no face, hands-only.
CTA: "Shop Piqki"

Metrics & Decision Rules

Primary Metric	MER
Secondary Metrics	Video completion rate, add-to-cart rate
Kill Rule	Spend $50+ with CTR < 0.8%
Scale Rule	MER > 3.0x with 50+ conversions

Hypothesis C: ASMR / Sensory Experience

What it tests: Whether the sensory/pleasurable aspect of the product drives conversion — does the "feel" of the experience matter more than the "story"?

Creative Brief

Hook: "Watch this satisfying press-on application" (no voice, ASMR sound design)
Visual: 15-sec ASMR-style, macro shot of nails, calm pace.
CTA: "Shop Piqki"

Metrics & Decision Rules

Primary Metric	MER
Secondary Metrics	Watch time, retargeting engagement
Kill Rule	Spend $50+ with CTR < 0.8%
Scale Rule	MER > 3.0x with 50+ conversions

Hypothesis D: Value Awakening ("The One Thing")

What it tests: Whether the audience needs permission to treat themselves — does framing as "affordable luxury" unlock purchasing?

Creative Brief

Hook: "The one beauty upgrade under $30 you didn't know you needed."
Visual: Confessional UGC, straight-to-camera, relatable tone.
CTA: "Shop Piqki"

Metrics & Decision Rules

Primary Metric	MER
Secondary Metrics	Landing page conversion rate
Kill Rule	Spend $50+ with CTR < 0.8%
Scale Rule	MER > 3.0x with 50+ conversions

Hypothesis E: Sustainability + Premium (White Space)

What it tests: Whether values-driven positioning (eco-friendly, vegan, reusable) attracts our target demographic.

Creative Brief

Hook: "Luxury nails, zero guilt. Our press-ons are 100% vegan and reusable."
Visual: Lifestyle/values-driven, nature-inspired visuals, calm tone.
CTA: "Shop Piqki"

Metrics & Decision Rules

Primary Metric	MER
Secondary Metrics	Email list signups, conversion rate
Kill Rule	Spend $50+ with CTR < 0.8%
Scale Rule	MER > 3.0x with 50+ conversions

Budget Allocation

Phase	Duration	Per Hypo	Total	Notes
Phase 1: Signal Detection	Apr 1–7	$500	$2,500	Minimum for statistical signal
Phase 2: Scale Winners	Apr 8–21	$1,500	$5,000	Double spend on top 2
Phase 3: Final Read	Apr 22–30	Remaining	$2,500	Allocate to #1
Total	April 2026	—	$10,000

Why $10K? Beauty CPM median is $12.78 (varos.com, April 2025). With 5 hypotheses, $10K is minimum to get clean signal.

3. What Competitors Are Actually Running

Data Limitation: Meta Ad Library direct access blocked (403 errors). Competitor data from social profiles and third-party sources. All labeled: observed, n=X, confidence: Medium.

Glamnetic

Metric	Data	Source
Instagram followers	697K	Instagram @glamnetic, Feb 2026
Positioning	"#1 premium press-on nail brand"	Instagram bio
Retail	Ulta, Sephora, Target, Kohl's	Instagram bio
Anti-salon content	7.4M views	Prior research (confidence: High)
Ad activity	High	Social monitoring (conf: Medium)

Olive & June

Metric	Data	Source
Instagram followers	725K	Instagram @oliveandjune, Feb 2026
Positioning	"Beautiful nails for everyone"	Website
Retail	Target, Walmart, Ulta, Amazon	Instagram bio

Chillhouse

Metric	Data	Source
Positioning	"Find Your Chill" — NYC Spa	chillhouse.com
Product	Press-ons + salon services	Website
Retail	Target (mass-market)	Reddit review

4. Platform Mechanics That Affect Testing

Meta's Learning Phase

Meta requires approximately 50 conversion events per ad set per week to exit the learning phase.

Source Meta Business Help Center, Reddit r/PPC (April 2025), Code3 (September 2025)
Confidence High — multiple independent sources

Budget Threshold Math

Metric	Value	Source
Beauty CPM (median)	$12.78	varos.com, April 2025
Beauty CTR (median)	0.93%	varos.com, April 2025
Beauty ROAS (median)	1.57x	varos.com, April 2025
Strong ROAS (impulse)	3.0x+	upcounting.com, Oct 2025
MER benchmark (beauty)	4.0x	triplewhale.com, 2025

Our targets:

Kill threshold: CTR < 0.8% (below beauty median)
Scale threshold: MER > 3.0x

Budget rule: Never raise budget by >20% on a winning ad set — this can reset learning. (Source: BestEver.ai, August 2025)

5. Weekly Operating Rhythm

Monday — Data Pull

Export Meta Ads Manager data for all 5 hypotheses
Pull Shopify backend data
Pull ManyChat data

Tuesday — ONE Decision

Scenario	Decision
Any CTR < 0.8% after $50+ spend	Kill it
Any MER > 3.0x with 50+ conversions	Scale it
All between 0.8-1.5% CTR	Iterate creative
All below MER 2.0x	Re-examine offer/pricing

6. April 1 Prerequisites

Shopify Pixel

Meta Pixel installed (verify with Chrome extension)
4 events configured: PageView, AddToCart, InitiateCheckout, Purchase
UTM tracking: utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign=april_test

ManyChat WHEEL Trigger

"WHEEL" keyword triggers wheel spin
Discount code integrates with Shopify
Flow leads to correct landing page

7. Prediction Register

Hypothesis	Prediction	Confidence	Verdict
A: Identity Shift	MER > 2.5x	Medium	TBD
B: Transformation	MER > 2.5x	Medium	TBD
C: ASMR	MER > 2.0x	Low-Medium	TBD
D: Value Awakening	MER > 2.0x	Medium	TBD
E: Sustainability	MER > 1.5x	Low	TBD

Report generated by Max (subagent) for Piqki paid social testing. Data gathered via web search and market research.

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