Piqki Financial Scenario Analysis — Updated

Prepared by Max | February 20, 2026

*Last updated: 2026-02-20 13:20 PST*

*Real numbers against real constraints. No BS.*

1. What Changed vs. Original Model

Bottom line: The original model assumed Feb launch, $22 CAC, $1.45M ad spend, and a TikTok organic tailwind. None of those are confirmed true. The real picture is smaller in 2026 but still viable if CAC comes in reasonable.

2. Three Scenarios: 2026–2027

Methodology

• 2026: April = test/pre-launch ads. May–Dec = 8 months of scaled spend.
• 2027: Full 12 months. Monthly spend scaled up 1.5× from 2026 rate.
• Repeat orders: % of new customers who place a 2nd order within the year.
• AOV: Applied to all orders (blended, includes both new + repeat).
• GP margin: 60% throughout (MSRP $25, COGS ~$3/unit — strong unit economics, this holds).
• Non-ad OPEX 2026: Lean ops (tools, CS, misc). No Gin salary.
• Non-ad OPEX 2027: Includes Gin salary ($15K/month = $180K/year).

CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO

*$35 CAC. This is what happens if cold-traffic UGC doesn't land efficiently.*

Unit Economics Check:

• GP per order: $50 × 60% = $30
• CAC: $35
• Contribution after CAC (first order): -$5
• Lifetime contribution (1st + 22% repeat × $30 GP): $1.60/customer
• ⚠️ Barely positive at unit level. Overhead kills it.

#### 2026 — Conservative

*Small loss. Survivable with $179K SAFE cash on hand, but no margin for error.*

#### 2027 — Conservative

BASE SCENARIO

*$25 CAC. Achievable with solid UGC creative and a trained ad account.*

Unit Economics Check:

• GP per order: $50 × 60% = $30
• CAC: $25
• Contribution after CAC: +$5
• Lifetime contribution (1st + 18% repeat): $10.40/customer
• ✅ Positive unit economics. Overhead is coverable at scale.

#### 2026 — Base

*Profitable. $134K operating profit in launch year with compressed timeline is solid.*

#### 2027 — Base

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO

*$18 CAC. This is what happens if creative breaks through and the algorithm loves you.*

Unit Economics Check:

• GP per order: $55 × 60% = $33
• CAC: $18
• Contribution after CAC: +$15
• Lifetime contribution (1st + 15% repeat): $19.95/customer
• 🚀 Strong unit economics. Real money at scale.

#### 2026 — Optimistic

*Strong year-one. $718K operating profit with no Gin salary — this is real capital to deploy.*

#### 2027 — Optimistic

Scenario Summary

3. Can Gin Hit $2M Personal Income by Y2 (2027)?

The honest answer: No — not in 2027 under any of these three scenarios.

Here's the direct breakdown:

What $2M in 2027 actually requires:

To generate $2M personal income ($180K salary + $1.82M distribution at 50% profit share), operating profit needs to be ~$3.64M. That implies:

• 2027 revenue: ~$11M+ (at 60% GM and current OPEX ratios)
• Which requires 2026 revenue: ~$5M+ (at 2× growth)
• Which requires a ~$5M 2026 revenue run rate — nearly the original model's projection
• That only happens if CAC comes in at $18–20 AND ad spend scales to $1M+ in 2026

What has to go right for $2M to be possible (2027 stretch):

1. CAC validates at $18 in April — not $25, not $35

2. AOV holds at $55+ (product mix, bundles, or upsells)

3. Ad scale jumps to $150K+/month by June 2026

4. Organic/UGC flywheel kicks in and brings blended CAC down over time

5. 2027 is a 3–4× growth year, not 2× — requires more capital or reinvestment

Realistic expectation: $2M personal income is a 2028 outcome at the earliest in the Base scenario, or a 2027 outcome only if Optimistic plays out AND we push growth harder than modeled here.

Don't plan against $2M in 2027. Plan against getting the unit economics right in 2026 — that's what makes everything else possible.

4. Key Assumptions That Need Real Data

These inputs change the model the most. Rank order by impact:

5. Recommended Approach

Plan against: Base Scenario

Here's why:

• Conservative is loss-making at unit level — if CAC is $35, you need to fix the product-market fit or creative before scaling, not throw more money at it
• Optimistic requires everything to go right at once — possible, but don't plan around it
• Base ($25 CAC) represents solid UGC performance on Meta/TikTok for a visually driven DTC brand. It's achievable. It's profitable. And it gives you real optionality to scale toward Optimistic if April data supports it

The $610K 2026 ad spend in Base is financeable from the SAFE + 2026 cash flow. You don't need the remaining $300K of the $500K SAFE to execute Base. That's runway security.

First 60 Days of Ads: The CAC Calibration Window

The April test ($8–10K) is not about revenue. It's about data. Here's how to run it:

Goal: Determine real CAC before committing to May scale. Get 3–5 months of compound learning, not just one month.

April (Weeks 1–4): Test Phase

• Budget: $250–350/day on Meta (Instagram primary, no TikTok ads yet)
• Creative: 5–8 UGC videos, 3 static concepts. Test diverse hooks — pain points, occasion use, transformation
• Audience: Broad 18–45F + 2–3 LAL audiences if any email list exists; no narrowing
• KPIs to track: CPM (aim <$12), CTR link (aim >1.5%), CVR on landing page (aim >2%), cost per purchase (your real CAC)
• Kill anything with <0.8% CTR after $50 spend. Scale anything with >2.5% CTR immediately

May (Weeks 5–8): Scale Decision

What to track in April beyond CAC:

• Which creative angle converts best (pain-point? aesthetic? occasion?)
• What landing page converts — single product vs. starter kit vs. quiz
• Email capture rate from non-buyers (build list for launch)
• Any organic creator activity from pre-launch PR seeding

The 60-day thesis: By end of May, you'll have real CAC data from $15–20K in actual spend. That data tells you which of the three scenarios you're actually in — and lets you commit confidently to a spend level that makes sense. Don't scale past $50K/month until April data confirms unit economics.

*Built by Max | February 20, 2026 | Source: original Piqki Financial Projections Model.xlsx, adjusted for May 2026 launch*