Piqki Post-Launch Retention Strategy

Executive Summary

Seven key findings from independent research across DTC beauty, subscription economics, and retention marketing:

1. Replenishment Triggers: Most Effective Retention Mechanics

What Works

Predictive Replenishment (Highest Impact)
Bluecore's research demonstrates that replenishment emails based on individual customer buying cadences significantly outperform those based on product averages. The key insight: "Customers rarely operate around averages."

• Mechanic: Track each customer's actual repurchase timing, then trigger emails at their individual cycle end
• Timing for press-on nails: 12-14 days post-purchase (product lasts 1-2 weeks)
• Expected impact: 15-25% conversion on replenishment emails

SMS as a Complementary Channel

• Beauty brands achieve 14.2% average CTR on SMS (Postscript data)
• Email averages 2.5% CTR in comparison
• Use SMS sparingly: replenishment alerts, flash sales, VIP early access

Recommendation for Piqki

Implement predictive replenishment in Klaviyo using order history data. Start with time-based triggers at day 12 and day 14, then refine to individual cadences as data accumulates.

2. Subscription vs. One-Time Purchase

The Math

Subscription Churn Rates:

• General subscription services: 6-8% monthly churn (Churnfree)
• Beauty subscription boxes: 15-40% monthly churn — among the highest in DTC
• Replenishment subscriptions (fixed product): 5-8% monthly churn

Why Beauty Subscriptions Underperform:

• 61% of consumers consider canceling beauty boxes (Admetrics research)
• Choice fatigue and "surprise" fatigue drive cancellations

Recommendation: NO Formal Subscription (At Launch)

Rationale: The product's natural replenishment cycle (2 weeks) is shorter than typical subscription intervals. A monthly subscription would lock customers into unwanted styles and require deep discount to convert.

Alternative: Triggered replenishment with subtle incentives (free shipping on next order, early access to new designs).

3. Loyalty Program: Points vs. VIP Tiers vs. Referral-Only

The Data on Loyalty Programs

Points-Based Programs:

• Bubble (DTC skincare): 171% revenue per customer increase, 73% repeat rate lift in 6 months
• Kitsch: $5.8M loyalty-attributed revenue, 8.7x higher repeat rate for top-tier VIPs
• Sephora Beauty Insider: 80% of sales from 17M members

The Pre-Launch Problem

Points-based loyalty requires substantial purchase history, redemption catalog management, and 6-12 months of data before meaningful tier segmentation. For a pre-launch brand, a formal points program is premature.

Recommendation: VIP Tier Program (Post-Launch, Month 6)

Structure:

• Tier 1 (Member): All customers automatically enrolled at first purchase
• Tier 2 (Devoted): 3+ orders OR $150 lifetime spend → benefits: early access, free shipping
• Tier 3 (Obsessed): 6+ orders OR $350 lifetime spend → benefits: above + birthday gift, exclusive colorways

Pre-launch: Focus on post-purchase experience, replenishment triggers, and referral engine — not a loyalty program.

4. Referral Engine: Mechanics, Tools, and Incentives

The Mechanics

Double-Sided vs. Single-Sided:

• Single-sided (reward only referrer): Lower cost, lower conversion
• Double-sided (reward both parties): 60%+ conversion rate for referred customers

For Premium Brands

The Discount Problem:

• Deep discounts cheapen brand perception
• 20%+ off signals "we're overpriced"

Premium Alternatives:

• Store credit (keeps money in ecosystem)
• Early access (no margin sacrifice)
• Exclusive products (limited, high-perceived-value)

Recommended Tool

Friendbuy or ReferralCandy — both integrate with Shopify and Klaviyo for attribution.

Recommendation: Referral Program at Launch

Mechanic:

• Double-sided: $10 store credit for referrer, $10 off for referee
• Trigger: Post-purchase confirmation email includes referral link

5. Post-Purchase Sequence: Timeline and Content

Optimal Sequence for 2-Week Replenishment Product

Day	Email	Purpose	Content
0	Order Confirmation	Reassurance	Order details, estimated delivery
1-2	Shipping Notification	Operational	Tracking link
3-4	Care Tips	Education	How to apply, how long they'll last
7	"How's Your Mani?"	Check-in	Soft engagement, no pitch
10	Reorder Window Opens	Soft Prompt	"Starting to think about your next look?"
12-14	Replenishment Alert	Hard Prompt	"Time for a refresh?" — include new designs
30	Win-Back	Re-engagement	"We miss you" — deeper discount

Email Tone Guidelines (Piqki Brand Voice)

DO:

• Matter-of-fact, dry wit
• "Your nails are ready for their rotation"
• "Next set, same quality. Lower effort."

DON'T:

• Exclamation points
• "Obsessed!" "Love!" "Glam!"
• Emoji

6. Community Retention: Social, UGC, and Brand Affinity

The nail category is inherently social — visual, self-expressive, and shareable.

What the Data Shows

No direct causal data exists linking community engagement to retention in DTC beauty. However:

• TikTok UGC: 15% engagement rates on authentic content
• UGC on TikTok: "fosters a sense of community and genuine connections"

Recommendation: Community as Acquisition + Retention Amplifier

Strategy:

• Focus community efforts on acquisition (new customer discovery)
• Let retention be driven by product quality + replenishment + VIP tiers
• Use UGC in post-purchase emails (social proof)

Tactics:

• Repost customer nail photos in Stories
• Run quarterly "Show Us Your Piqki" UGC campaigns
• Feature top customers in email

Prioritized Action List

Pre-Launch (Before May 2026 Launch)

1. Set up Klaviyo flows — build 8-flow architecture now
2. Implement referral program — deploy Friendbuy or ReferralCandy
3. Create SMS consent capture — build SMS list from day 1
4. Design VIP tier structure — plan now, implement at Month 6

Post-Launch (Month 1-3)

1. Post-purchase sequence execution
2. Replenishment optimization
3. SMS channel testing

Post-Launch (Month 4-6)

1. Launch VIP tier program
2. Referral + VIP integration
3. Community UGC campaigns

Post-Launch (Month 6-12)

1. Predictive replenishment (if data supports)
2. Subscription experiment (if approved)